The National Bank of Ukraine had every opportunity to remove Alliance Bank from the market long before it reached a critical point. But instead of decisive action, there were years of inaction. Now it looks like deliberate cover-up — one that could end in a collapse, along with the regulator’s own reputation.

In 2022, the NBU provided Alliance Bank with nearly UAH 3 billion in refinancing — an amount that far exceeds the bank’s actual scale. Larger systemic banks received less. The conclusion seems obvious: Alliance was supported not out of necessity, but out of interest.

The reasons behind such “care” appear to be clear. The bank has long been described as infrastructure for shadow financial flows: “grey” and “black” money, gambling, and questionable payment schemes — all of which require a “friendly” bank. A second factor is influential clients, whose interests are allegedly protected at the highest levels. The schemes reportedly involve domestic government bonds (OVDP), with the participation of a sitting member of parliament and their associates. A third factor is the NBU’s reluctance to admit failure. If Alliance collapses, a direct question will arise: how did the regulator “fail to notice” violations for years?

The blow would fall personally on NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi and could result in his resignation. There is also an international dimension. The IFC (World Bank Group) provided Alliance Bank with $11 million. Where that money is now remains an open question. In the event of a collapse, explanations would be owed not only to Ukrainian society but also to Western partners.

At the same time, Alliance Bank has long been mired in controversy: NBU fines, financial monitoring violations, involvement in gambling and questionable transactions. The bank has been unable to place an additional share issue, effectively demonstrating financial weakness. Key figures are no longer active: former board chair Yuliia Frolova is on an international wanted list, while the main shareholder, Pavlo Shcherban, according to media reports, is redirecting funds into other businesses instead of supporting the bank.

Meanwhile, the NBU has not even been able to approve a new CEO, leaving the bank in a semi-paralyzed state.

The outcome appears inevitable: Alliance Bank is being artificially sustained. But when the system can no longer hold, it won’t just be the bank that falls — trust in the National Bank and its leadership will erode alongside it.